Greece’s 15% transfer-tax plan could hit more future demand than past sales suggest

Greece’s announced increase in property transfer tax for third-country buyers is becoming easier to size, even though the final law and transitional rules are not yet settled. The government has announced a move from the current 3% headline transfer-tax rate to 15% for qualifying residential purchases by third-country nationals. The key new market evidence comes from Elxis, a company focused on overseas holiday-home buyers. Its 2024–2026 data show that non-EU buyers accounted for about 20% of completed purchases, while 44% of expressed demand came from third-country nationals. That gap matters: the measure may affect a larger share of future demand than the historical transaction share suggests. It could be especially relevant for resort and second-home markets, whose buyer mix differs from central Athens. Investors should treat the 15% rate as an announced policy rather than a fully enacted rule until the legislative text fixes the effective date, exemptions, residence-status treatment and transitional provisions.