Poland: more homes in the pipeline, less building work — what the two signals mean

January–September 2026 in five numbers

• Dwellings completed: 149,200, +3.1%.
• Dwellings started: +4.5%.
• Dwellings with a permit or notification: +12.3%.
• Construction and assembly output: −4.7%.
• Of which construction of buildings: −8.1%.

Why both can be true

The housing data count dwellings at each stage, from permit to completion. Construction output measures the value of all work done in a period, including offices, warehouses, roads and repairs, not only flats. A large permit is also not work done: many projects with permits start months later, and some never start.

GUS said September's fall was linked to irregular settlements and a high base a year earlier. One weak quarter of output therefore says less about future supply than the rise in permits and starts.

What to watch

• Starts in the coming months: if they keep growing, more flats should reach the market in 2027–2028.
• Developer completions: they rose only 1.2%, so supply this year is close to last year's level.
• Building output in October: a second weak month would be a stronger warning.

Details: housing data and September construction output.